Europe is forecast to have mostly normal to above-average temperatures for the first half of December, driven by a westerly to southwesterly flow.
This brings a mild pattern to the continent, with the influx of cold air being interrupted or pushed far north.
Severe Weather Europe has released its average snowfall forecast for the winter meteorological season, which covers the period December-January-February. Looking at the seasonal average according to ECMWF, below-average snowfall is seen across most of the continent, with the main snowfall areas shifted northwards, but some central and western areas are also seen showing a smaller deficit of snowfall.
However, there is some improvement compared to the forecast data from the previous month. The latest data now predicts more snowfall for the central and west-central parts and for parts of the United Kingdom and Ireland. There is no increase in heavy snowfall as a result of stratospheric warming.
December
The December snowfall forecast shows mostly negative anomalies, except in the far north. It is surprising to see less snow at higher elevations, suggesting a greater problem with low precipitation than warm temperatures, meteorologists say.
January
There is no improvement in the January forecast. Most of Europe is predicted to see less snowfall in mid-winter, but some areas in the southeast will also receive more snow during the period, along with the far north.
February
The forecast for February shows a slightly smaller deficit compared to the data for January. Although both months appear very poor in snow, the red color does not mean there is no snow at all. It only indicates that less snow is expected than usual.
Looking at the UKMO seasonal average for Europe, we see a fairly weak snowfall forecast, similar to that of ECMWF. A below-average snowfall season is forecast for most of the continent, except for the far north.
“In our experience, UKMO is usually less optimistic about snowfall than ECMWF, so this is to be expected. The latest analysis shows much better snowfall amounts compared to the previous month’s data. It is likely that some of the improvement comes from the current stratospheric warming event. Much of the mainland shows more snowfall in the latest forecast, and we can also see improved snowfall over the southern part of the UK,” writes Severe Weather Europe.
Snowfall
The snowfall forecast for December shows stronger negative anomalies, just like the ECMWF. This coincidence in both models gives some weight to this scenario, with a slower start to the snowfall season. There are still some south-central and northern areas with normal to above-average or normal snowfall. The snowfall forecast for January, however, shows some improvement in parts of central Europe, with some areas even above average, and smaller deficits compared to western parts. This suggests that the main problem this month is probably the lack of precipitation, with milder temperatures, Večernji list reports.
The February snowfall forecast again reduces the potential for snowfall across most of Europe, except for the far north. There is still a smaller shortage of snow compared to January, so it is likely to be more of a one-off snowfall.
Severe Weather uses two systems, one is the UKMO long-range forecast system, developed by the United Kingdom Met Office. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) is an intergovernmental organisation that has developed the Integrated Forecast System (IFS), a comprehensive global forecasting system consisting of several linked weather forecasting models.
